A space for growth
The population of CEE countries currently exceeds 140 million inhabitants and 50 million households, with a total spend of approximately 130 billion Euros in FMCG in 2024 (MAT August 2024). The top five European countries in FMCG value growth in 2024 (compared to 2023) are located in CEE, with Poland leading the way with an impressive 8.3% growth, while WSE countries have grown less or even declined.
These figures already indicate that this region deserves attention, and economic indices for numerous CEE countries provide additional evidence. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), real GDP growth in CEE will be 2% to 4% higher in 2027 than the average of the G7 countries* and the Eurozone countries (+1.4 to +1.6%).
In addition to more promising growth predictions compared to Western European countries, we also observe a more open, explorative mindset and a higher interest in trying new products. This is especially true for Romania, where more than 80% of shoppers are willing to buy new products, followed by countries like Serbia, Poland, and Croatia, which also score above average. Only 11.5% of shoppers across CEE show no interest in innovation, compared to values above 20% in some Western countries such as Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Given the potential in these economies, why are some FMCG players not yet present or only starting their CEE adventure? Do they perhaps encounter specific challenges and barriers in the region?
“Admittedly, some aspects could be challenging if not understood well, but Central and Eastern Europe is a region of opportunity,” says Magdalena Zimna, CEE Regional Director at YouGov. She adds a personal piece of advice: “It is extremely important to look beyond the region and pay attention to country and shopper specifics.”
* Includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States of America
Countries by FMCG Value Growth
Source: YouGov Shopper Panel, FY 24 vs. FY 23 Value
Opportunity comes in different flavors
The CEE countries exhibit significant variations in numerous aspects, particularly in population size. Poland, with over 41 million inhabitants, contrasts sharply with Croatia's 4 million people.
Unsurprisingly, the retailer landscape also reveals vast differences, leading to diverse shopping patterns. In countries like Slovakia and the Czech Republic, retail is highly concentrated around 10 main retailers covering a large proportion of the market. In contrast, countries like Bulgaria and Ukraine have a very decentralized retail infrastructure. The types of retailers also differ considerably: for example, hypermarkets account for almost one-third of the market in the Czech Republic but only 6% in Serbia. Small grocery stores maintain a relatively high and stable value share of about one-fifth of the market in Croatia, compared to a mere 3% in Poland. This channel has seen significant decline in Romania and Bulgaria, where small grocery stores have lost almost 30% of their share over the past five years.
Retail trade concentration
SK
CZ
PL
BG
UA
Source: YouGov Shopper Panel, Value Share of Top 10 Retailers in total FMCG market
Understanding shopper diversity
The differences extend beyond country level; generational aspects also play a significant role. Older generations exhibit more traditional behavior, while younger shoppers are increasingly influenced by global and “western” trends. For example, convenience food and ready-to-drink products have gained a growing fanbase over the past few years, similar to other EU countries.
Given the vast differences within each country, such as between urban and rural populations, we encounter a wide variety of shopper types. These types are often grounded in local country specifics but are comparable across countries due to common patterns:
FMCG Shopper Types
Promo Hunters are middle-aged shoppers with financial limitations who are always looking for the best deal. They use leaflets and enjoy all kinds of promotions. Their high frequency of shopping trips indicates they have time for shopping around and cherry-picking between products and promotions.
Quality Shoppers are premium buyers who prioritize quality, health, and environmental considerations, often fulfilled in specialized shops. They are older, affluent in both time and money, with the highest shopping frequency and spending. Their focus is on fresh and premium products, with a low private label share.
Discount Shoppers have low income and FMCG spending, with little interest in aspects like regionality. Focused Discount Shoppers favor private label and have the lowest promo share, while Discount Switchers prefer budget purchases, whether private labels or budget brands, with the lowest organic share in their baskets.
Traditional Shoppers are only found in a few countries and can vary. Traditional Rural Shoppers live in rural areas, buying economy and mainstream brands from local shops and chains. Traditionals with Fresh Food Focus prefer specialists and open markets, with a high share of fresh products in their baskets.
While patterns are similar, the share of each shopper type varies from country to country. For example, in Croatia, 24% are Promo Hunters and the same share are Quality Shoppers, whereas in Hungary, 45% are Discount Shoppers compared to 21% Traditional Shoppers.
Each of these shopping groups has different expectations regarding assortment, brand availability, pricing strategies, and more. Therefore, tackling the highly diverse and dynamic CEE region poses the challenge of avoiding a fragmented approach.